Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, October 2nd

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory, as was expected after this weekend’s short-term funding bill was passed in Washington DC. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 66 points and the Nasdaq up 95 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (4.63%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point if compared to Friday’s early pricing.



30 yr - 4.63%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



ISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)

This week’s activities started late this morning with the release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for September. It came in unexpectedly high at 49.0, indicating business conditions were better than thought last month. Analysts had predicted it would be 47.8, up slightly from August’s 47.6. Since this is a sign of strength in the manufacturing sector, we need to consider the data bad news for bonds and a contributing factor to this morning’s increase in rates.




Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled. The remainder of the week has four more monthly economic reports for the markets to digest, including the almighty monthly employment report. There are also a high number of Fed member speaking engagements spread throughout the week that traders will be listening to and an OPEC meeting midweek that may influence the financial and mortgage markets.



Employment Situation

Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week due to the importance of the Employment report but Wednesday also may be active for rates. Tomorrow is the best candidate for calmest day unless something unexpected happens. We can expect to see a fair amount of movement in rates this week, so it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Citywide Group

Your Loan Expert, Serving All Of California